I am going to take a minute today to share some thoughts on recessions. As mentioned previously, recessions are a normal part of economic cycles. We can confidently predict that they will happen, but we cannot confidently predict when they will happen. There are many different economic indictors that economists and investment professionals examine on a regular basis to try …
What Recession?
Last year as we entered 2023, most economists believed that the US economy was likely to enter into a recession at some point during the year. They had many reasons to believe this. In addition to the Fed rapidly raising interest rates — inflation was high, the yield curve was inverted (historically a strong sign of impending recession), the stock …
Economic & Market Report: Looking Beneath The Surface
“Look beneath the surface; let not the several quality a thing nor its worth escape thee.” – Marcus Aurelius The gains in the U.S. stock market keep on coming. This includes the headline benchmark S&P 500, which is now up over +7% year to date with seemingly any and all dips (Tuesday this week) almost immediately being bought (Wednesday this week). …
Social Security
Social Security is a controversial topic but worth spending a minute discussing today because it is an important piece of the retirement puzzle for most people. There are constantly headlines in the news about Social Security, how it works, ought to work and whether or not it will even be solvent in the future. The purpose of this post is …
Economic & Market Report: Shortness of Breadth
The U.S. stock market is flying once again this year. After posting an impressive +24% advance in 2023, a year when many prognosticators thought that the market would descend further into bear territory instead of skyrocketing, the S&P 500 Index is already up nearly +7% in 2024 so far. But a troubling characteristic continues to linger for the U.S. stock …
Economic & Market Report: Stress Test
The U.S. economy continues to exude resilience as we make our way through the early months of the New Year. And capital markets are increasingly reflecting this strength including the headline benchmark S&P 500 Index, which has cleared the 5000 level and is already surging toward 5100. Amid this atmosphere where everything is seemingly awesome, it is worthwhile to skim …
Economic & Market Report: Some Like It Hot
The latest jobs report for the month of January came in “hot”. The latest reading on CPI inflation to start the New Year was “hot”. While most of us are all for some unexpected heat during the frigid winter months, these hot readings on the U.S. economy have upset the thesis for many investors banking their portfolio strategies on a steady wave of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2024. But maybe these recently hot economic readings are signaling an outcome even better for investors in the year ahead.
Health Savings Accounts
Almost anyone who has spoken with me on financial planning has heard me express how much I love Health Savings Accounts (HSAs). In my opinion HSAs are an underrated and underutilized tool that can provide numerous benefits when used properly. In order to contribute to an HSA, a person much be utilizing an eligible high deductible health care plan. The …
Individual Retirement Accounts
The goal of this post is to share a few details about how Individual Retirement Accounts work, and the tax implications for them during accumulation and in retirement. This post does not include all of the rules and I intentionally omit some specific numbers such as contribution limits or withdrawal details since these are subject to change. Traditional IRA – …
Economic & Market Report: Déjà Vu?
It was nearly a year ago when global capital markets came under sudden and intense pressure. Over the course of hours in March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank evaporated into insolvency. In the subsequent days, New York based Signature Bank and Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse followed into the abyss, and global investors found themselves having Great Financial Crisis flashbacks as they spent two consecutive weekends waiting with bated breath for a government resolution to prevent another major banking contagion. So as financial headlines start to gather around New York Community Bank (NYCB), it is reasonable to wonder whether we are going to see déjà vu all over again in early 2024.